GEOFF BENNETT: Well, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a virtual standstill since the U.S.

and Israel attacked Iran almost two months ago.

Around 20 percent of the world's petrochemical supply normally moves through the strait.

As tanker traffic drops sharply and attacks on oil and gas facilities continue, the ripple effects are growing by the day.

For more on the impact, return now to Karen Young.

She is a senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy and her senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.

Karen Young, thank you for being with us.

KAREN YOUNG, Middle East Institute: Thank you.

GEOFF BENNETT: I know you told our team about 600 million barrels of oil haven't reached their expected destinations since the end of February.

How does that figure compare to previous oil supply disruptions like the 1973 oil embargo or even the 1990 Gulf War?

KAREN YOUNG: This is the largest supply shock to energy markets that we have ever experienced.

So there really is no comparison.

And even to the COVID pandemic, when we had such a sharp contraction in demand, this is not the same, right?

Because we still need this oil.

We're expecting it and it's not -- the deliveries are now not happening.

So the ships that were on their way at the end of February have basically arrived to their destinations, and there are not resupplies coming.

So the longer that the blockade and the threat of violence within the strait continues, we sort of deepen this deficit of oil supply that is going to countries and destinations around the world.

GEOFF BENNETT: Beyond this deficit, as you put it, of oil and jet fuel, what's your timeline for when consumers in the U.S.

and Europe will feel the impact on things like grocery prices and consumer goods?

KAREN YOUNG: Well, we're already feeling it, but the geographic impacts, it has been varied.

And we have already seen really sharp contractions in Asia and East Asia and particularly in countries that don't have large stockpiles or governments that don't have the financing to subsidize the increased price of fuels.

Those countries are experiencing basically shortages and efforts to control demand, so telling people not to go to work, not to drive on certain days, to basically diminish their energy demand.

That's not happened in Europe or North America or South America yet, but the way that we're going to experience this, of course, is first in our transit prices of gasoline, refined products.

We're already seeing airlines, particularly airlines that serve Europe, canceling flights for the summer, in anticipation of a shortage of jet fuel.

So, as you said, yes, there -- about normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would be about 20 million barrels per day of oil and about five million, four to five million barrels per day of refined product.

That refined product is jet fuel, diesel, and other kinds of fuels and fuel materials like naphtha.

And so it's about transportation, but it's also about the kinds of things that are made from oil.

So, petrochemicals, you mentioned.

So anything that's about packaging, plastics, medical devices, tires, all of those things are not going to be produced at the same volumes or at the same prices.

And that's when consumers are going to start to feel the pinch and we're going to start to see some inflationary pressures.

GEOFF BENNETT: Does this crisis accelerate any permanent shifts in global energy supply chains?

Or, in your view, once the strait reopens, whenever that is, everything sort of snaps back to the way it was?

KAREN YOUNG: We can't just snap back.

And so I think that's a really important thing for people and consumers and businesses to understand.

It's going to take some time.

And the reason why is that first you have to have safe transit of ships to come into the Gulf and load.

They have to get to loading facilities in Kuwait and Iraq, which essentially have been just shut in.

And so first what will happen is that ships will arrive and they will be filled from oil that's been put into storage.

So you're not even going to see the restarting of oil wells and pumping until that storage is emptied.

Then you can start to reignite the pumping stations of these wells.

And that's not a switch process.

Some of them will take longer.

They will require a little bit more technical work.

Shaikh Nawaf of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, a corporation, has said this could take three to four months in Kuwait.

And so then you're going to be able to start your refining processes and get that jet fuel, the diesel products moving as well.

But what we know in terms of the ability to get to an agreement is that this could take some time, especially if the waters are unsafe, if they're mined, if ships require military support.

It will be a prolonged period of instability.

GEOFF BENNETT: Karen Young, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, thank you for joining us this evening.

KAREN YOUNG: Thank you.